What Carmaker Has The Widest Range Of Vehicles Under The Same Name?

Illustration for article titled What Carmaker Has The Widest Range Of Vehicles Under The Same Name?

Photo: Pegaso

Yesterday afternoon I played hooky from work to go check out my local Pegaso dealership, which is just a short drive from my house to a pill I found on a park picnic table that lets me transcend space and time. At the dealership, I was able to see the full Pegaso product line, which is really quite bonkers.

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Pegaso is interesting because the same company made, under the same name, beautiful, sleek sports cars like the Z-102 and Z-103, and also innumerable huge trucks, buses, and big military, tank-like vehicles. That’s a pretty remarkable breadth.

But there’s other companies with similarly vast breadths of vehicles, right? I mean, Tatra made advanced, aerodynamic luxury cars and huge trucks, and Honda makes tiny city cars and mopeds and even jets. And doesn’t Hyundai build container ships under the same name brand as they sold the Veloster?

So, of all the carmakers that make wildly divergent vehicles, which divergence is the most wild? Tell me, tell me now, dammit.

Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon

Illustration for article titled Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon

Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

One of the most important milestones in the shift to electrification is coming sooner than you think. Electric cars will cost less to make than internal combustion cars by the year 2027, according to a report from The Guardian.

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And the lower cost of production will come even sooner than that in certain EV segments. For example, electric midsize sedans and SUVs will be cheaper to make than internal combustion midsize sedans and SUVs by 2026, per the report. Just one year after that, smaller cars will follow and it’s mostly thanks to cheaper batteries.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

The research that The Guardian cites concludes that batteries will drive a big decrease in EV production costs in the near future. As EV batteries get cheaper, the production of electric cars gets cheaper, too, because batteries account for as much as a quarter of that overall cost.

The Guardian cites a new study, which suggests that the price of batteries will decrease by more than half of where it is now, in this decade:

The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour.

This means that in as little as five years from today, electric cars will actually be the cheaper option for big auto and it’s very possible that, as The Guardian outlines, “tighter emissions regulations could put [EVs] in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade…”

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

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When you take the stricter emissions that the European Union is proposing, and you add that to the lower cost of batteries, you get a market where making and selling EVs is more lucrative for carmakers than ICE ever was.

The important question, then, is: Will cheaper to make translate to cheaper to buy? The report indicates that it is a possibility:

The current average pre-tax retail price of a medium-sized electric car is €33,300 [~$40,135], compared with €18,600 [~$22,615] for a petrol car, according to the research. In 2026, both are forecast to cost about €19,000 [~$23,101].

By 2030, the same electric car is forecast to cost €16,300 [~$19,818]before tax, while the petrol car would cost €19,900 [~24,196.]

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Carmakers are beginning to like not operating on razor-thin margins. It’s possible that cheaper batteries will mean more profit for big auto, rather than EVs for the masses.

I can’t wait to see what carmakers are going to push in order to meet these upmarket margins as EV production costs go down. Really, I’m just stoked to see how they’ll swerve around the $25,000 electric car.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

Solid State Batteries Could Deliver The EVs We Imagine But Carmakers Ought To Be Realistic

Illustration for article titled Solid State Batteries Could Deliver The EVs We Imagine But Carmakers Ought To Be Realistic

Image: Lexus

We’re going to need an offshoot of Moore’s Law that applies to EV batteries soon, because progress is on the verge of rapidly accelerating thanks to solid state batteries.

Given the imminent focus on the new batteries, now is a good time to explain how these differ from their predecessors. Who better to explain than one of the companies at the forefront of developing this new tech, QuantumScape?

As you can see, the difference is in the name! A solid-state battery has a different structure than a lithium-ion battery, doing away with the need for as many layers in the construction. This results in a more compact, lighter battery.

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Image: Volkswagen

Volkswagen, through its investments in QuantumScape, and Toyota have been proponents of the technology for a few years now, and development of the new tech is hitting strides. The batteries will not be used in current production EVs such as those based on Volkswagen’s MEB platform, but Toyota is teasing the new tech in proposed models like the Lexus LF-30.

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Image: Lexus

In a recent report, Road Show provides a good overview of what this new battery can do for future EVs. Among the benefits:

  • Greater energy density. This could mean an EV with two or more times the current range, or possibly an EV with the same range but with a much smaller, lighter and less expensive battery that charges faster.
  • Faster charging. Estimates of an 80 percent charge in 15 minutes get bandied about a lot with solid state, performance that would be on par or a bit faster than today’s best li-ion applications.
  • Longer life. Solid-state tech is a key part of GM’s plan to produce a million-mile life battery, changing the equation of EV affordability and reducing concerns about mountains of toxic batteries that need recycling after 100,000 to 150,000 miles.
  • Thermal stability. Solid-state designs promise less likelihood of thermal runaway, which can cause a fire. Li-ion batteries have developed a nasty reputation for this.

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All of this sounds great, but there is the concern that these advances in battery tech will cancel out. Let me explain: As battery technology improves and brings better range, faster recharge times and greater energy density, carmakers could get greedy.

We know the higher energy density offers the potential to reduce the size — crucially, the weight — of the batteries required to deliver the range customers want. Lower mass is great for cars all around, and it’s exactly what we want for future EVs, but what if carmakers instead stick to the current standard for battery pack weight and opt for greater and greater range rather than weight reduction?

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I don’t want more range! I want a smaller, lighter, more efficient EV. Or at least some compromise. Carmakers will have the chance to design better, more efficient EVs but I hope this does not create an arms race similar to the cylinder wars. There has to be a happy medium for EVs and solid-state batteries could get us there.

NHTSA Has A Lot Of Catch-Up Ahead

Illustration for article titled NHTSA Has A Lot Of Catch-Up Ahead

Photo: Associated Press (AP)

It’s happening too often. Someone spots a Tesla owner sleeping while motoring down the freeway, their car under the control of Tesla’s Autopilot driver assistance system. Next thing you know, it’s all over social media.

You may wonder how Tesla was able to release this product onto public roads. Are there no regulations covering such features? Isn’t this a safety issue? According to a report from the Los Angeles Times, it really breaks down to oversight from the government.

The Trump administration focused its efforts on rolling back fuel economy requirements. Its arguments for doing so was that cars would become both cheaper and safer. That didn’t happen, and it’s a mystery why Trump thought it would. One explanation is he didn’t know shit about cars.

Unfortunately, fuel economy and emissions control rollbacks were just about the only things Trump’s NHTSA did get around to doing. NHTSA’s important regulatory oversight work stalled for four years with no director at the helm. Now, the Biden administration has a backlog of neglected tasks to dig through. As the Times report shows, NHTSA has been pretty much hands-off when it comes to driver-assistance systems, specifically when it comes to Tesla’s misleadingly named Autopilot:

Officially, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration discourages such behavior, running a public awareness campaign last fall with the hashtag #YourCarNeedsYou. But its messaging competes with marketing of Tesla itself, which recently said it will begin selling a software package for “Full Self Driving” — a term it has used since 2016 despite objections from critics and the caveats in the company’s own fine print — on a subscription basis starting this quarter.

That NHTSA has so far declined to confront Tesla directly on the issue is firmly in character for an agency that took a hands-off approach to a wide range of matters under the Trump administration.

”Inactive,” is how Carla Bailo, chief executive of the Center for Automotive Research, summed up NHTSA’s four previous years. “Dormant,” said Jason Levine, executive director at the Center for Auto Safety. “No direction,” said Bryant Walker Smith, a professor and expert in autonomous vehicle law at the University of South Carolina.

The agency went the full Trump term without a Senate-confirmed administrator, leaving deputies in charge. It launched several safety investigations into Tesla and other companies, but left most unfinished. “A massive pile of backlog” awaits the Biden administration,” said Paul Eisenstein, publisher of The Detroit Bureau industry news site.

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While NHTSA has been absent on a number of issues, its lack of oversight on autonomous driving is perhaps the biggest. The Times says Level 2 autonomy is the biggest safety challenge since Ralph Nader’s Unsafe At Any Speed. Silly Nader references aside, the Times does have a point.

How to deal with emerging autonomous driving technologies is a long term issue. But one thing is for sure, the way Tesla uses its customers as beta testers raises alarm bells with experts.

Whoever takes charge must balance the long-term potential for next-generation cars to reduce pollution, traffic and greenhouse gases against the near-term risks of deploying buggy new technologies at scale before they’re fully vetted. In the “move fast and break things” style of Silicon Valley, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has embraced those risks.

While other driverless car developers — from General Motors’ Cruise, to Ford’s Argo AI, to Amazon’s Zoox, to Alphabet’s Waymo, to independent Aurora and more — all take an incremental, slow rollout approach with professional test drivers at the wheel, Tesla is “beta testing” its driverless technology on public roads using its customers as test drivers.

Musk said last month that Tesla cars will be able to fully drive themselves without human intervention on public roads by late this year. He’s been making similar promises since 2016. No driverless car expert or auto industry leader outside Tesla has said they think that’s possible.

While law professor Smith is impressed by Tesla’s “brilliant” ability to use Tesla drivers to collect millions of miles of sensor data to help refine its software, “that doesn’t excuse the marketing, because this is in no way full self-driving. There are so many things wrong with that term. It’s ludicrous. If we can’t trust a company when they tell us a product is full self-driving, how can we trust them when they tell us a product is safe?”

The Detroit Bureau’s Eisenstein is even harsher. “Can I say this off the record?” he said. “No, let me say it on the record. I’m appalled by Tesla. They’re taking the smartphone approach: Put the tech out there, and find out whether or not it works. It’s one thing to put out a new IOS that caused problems with voice dictation. It’s another thing to have a problem moving 60 miles per hour.”

A late 2016 NHTSA directive under the Obama administration considered “predictable abuse” as a potential defect in autonomous driving tech deployment. Unfortunately, under Trump NHTSA did nothing. For context, the directive came about a year after the software that enabled Autopilot driver assistance in the Tesla Model S was released.

The inaction of NHTSA drew ire from another federal safety agency, the National Transportation Safety Board. The NTSB — which is most known for its investigations of plane and train incidents — blamed predictable abuse for a 2018 crash where a Tesla Model X crashed into a concrete divider.

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Part of the issue is the lack of transparency from Musk and Tesla regarding how safe the Autopilot driver-assist system is as well as a lack of data in general. From the Times:

Musk regularly issues statistics purporting to show that Autopilot and Full Self Driving are on balance safer than cars driven by humans alone. That could be, but even if Musk’s analysis is sound — several statisticians have said it is not — the data is proprietary to Tesla, and Tesla has declined to make even anonymized data available to university researchers for independent confirmation. Tesla could not be reached — it disbanded its media relations department last year.

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In 2019, after a series of Tesla battery fires, NHTSA launched a probe of the company’s software and battery management systems. Later, the agency said allegedly defective cooling tubes that could cause leaks were being investigated as well. At the time, the agency did not make public information it held about battery cooling tubes prone to leakage that were installed in early versions of the Model S and Model X.

Since late 2016, many Tesla drivers had been complaining about “whompy wheels” on their cars — a tendency for the suspension system to break apart, which sometimes caused a wheel to collapse or fall off the car. Chinese drivers lodged similar complaints, and last October, China authorities ordered a recall of 30,000 Model S and Model X cars. A Tesla lawyer wrote NHTSA a letter arguing no U.S. recall was necessary and blamed driver “abuse” for the problems in China. NHTSA said in October it is “monitoring the situation closely.”

Four days before Biden’s inauguration, NHTSA announced that defects in Tesla touchscreen hardware can make the car’s rear-view camera go blank, among other problems. Rather than order a recall, NHTSA said it asked Tesla to voluntarily recall approximately 158,000 Model S and Model X cars for repair. On Feb. 2, Tesla agreed to recall 135,000 of those cars.

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Check out the full Los Angeles Times report, it’s well worth the read!