Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon

Illustration for article titled Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon

Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

One of the most important milestones in the shift to electrification is coming sooner than you think. Electric cars will cost less to make than internal combustion cars by the year 2027, according to a report from The Guardian.

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And the lower cost of production will come even sooner than that in certain EV segments. For example, electric midsize sedans and SUVs will be cheaper to make than internal combustion midsize sedans and SUVs by 2026, per the report. Just one year after that, smaller cars will follow and it’s mostly thanks to cheaper batteries.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

The research that The Guardian cites concludes that batteries will drive a big decrease in EV production costs in the near future. As EV batteries get cheaper, the production of electric cars gets cheaper, too, because batteries account for as much as a quarter of that overall cost.

The Guardian cites a new study, which suggests that the price of batteries will decrease by more than half of where it is now, in this decade:

The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour.

This means that in as little as five years from today, electric cars will actually be the cheaper option for big auto and it’s very possible that, as The Guardian outlines, “tighter emissions regulations could put [EVs] in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade…”

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

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When you take the stricter emissions that the European Union is proposing, and you add that to the lower cost of batteries, you get a market where making and selling EVs is more lucrative for carmakers than ICE ever was.

The important question, then, is: Will cheaper to make translate to cheaper to buy? The report indicates that it is a possibility:

The current average pre-tax retail price of a medium-sized electric car is €33,300 [~$40,135], compared with €18,600 [~$22,615] for a petrol car, according to the research. In 2026, both are forecast to cost about €19,000 [~$23,101].

By 2030, the same electric car is forecast to cost €16,300 [~$19,818]before tax, while the petrol car would cost €19,900 [~24,196.]

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Carmakers are beginning to like not operating on razor-thin margins. It’s possible that cheaper batteries will mean more profit for big auto, rather than EVs for the masses.

I can’t wait to see what carmakers are going to push in order to meet these upmarket margins as EV production costs go down. Really, I’m just stoked to see how they’ll swerve around the $25,000 electric car.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

Ferrari Is Finally Getting Off Its High Horse And Is Embracing Electric Cars

Illustration for article titled Ferrari Is Finally Getting Off Its High Horse And Is Embracing Electric Cars

Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

Ferrari has read the room. The Italian carmaker is finally admitting that electrification is where cars are heading — in its case, more like being dragged kicking and screaming. Nonetheless, Ferrari is now pushing its battery electric car release up by five years, according to a report from Bloomberg.

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That means the Prancing Horse will adorn a fully electrified car by 2025, rather than 2030. This is a significant course correction for Ferrari who had been dismissive of EVs in the past. The Bloomberg report calls it reluctance.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

I think that assessment is a little generous when you consider the remarks from Ferrari’s previous leadership. The carmaker’s last chief executive officer, Louis Camilleri, all but claimed that its customers didn’t want a fully electric Ferrari. I think that attitude had very much to do with not going against the image Ferrari wanted to project, which under Camilleri was all about a certain lifestyle.

The problem is that attitude relegated EVs to something less urgent and necessary than they really are. It reinforced the notion that the wealthy are above any crises we collectively face. As if the electrification of the auto industry is beneath supercar buyers.

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Photo: Ferrari

It’s quite a pretentious notion and I’m happy that Ferrari’s current chairman, John Elkann, has addressed the importance of getting an all-electric Ferrari on the road sooner. Elkann spoke to Ferrari’s EV plans on an investor call during Ferrari’s annual general meeting, from the Bloomberg report.

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Besides sharing the new projections for the electric Ferrari, Elkann also elaborated on why the company is embracing EVs:

We are continuing to execute our electrification strategy in a highly disciplined way.

Our interpretation and application of these technologies both in motorsport and in road cars is a huge opportunity to bring the uniqueness and passion of Ferrari to new generations.

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That’s a more sensible approach, and possibly a more lucrative one, too. New generations being the giveaway. The Camilleri approach feels silly because it tethers the company to an aging demographic.

Just think of storied companies and their reluctance to change for the sake of what, brand integrity? OK, Camilleri. Go ahead and ask Harley-Davidson what brand integrity is worth. Even Harley has had to course correct, and it put itself on the path to electrification with the LiveWire.

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Photo: Ferrari

And it’s not like Ferrari hasn’t done anything at all in this arena. Though, the effort Ferrari has put into electrification has yielded only the SF90 Stradale so far, which feels like a tepid entry into the EV segment with it’s whopping eight mile electric range. But it is a Ferrari, for what that’s worth.

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So, let’s see more, Ferrari, but stick to red and yellow; I actually do mean that one. Whatever BEV Ferrari debuts in 2025, I hope it puts zero EV accents on the car.

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Photo: Getty (Getty Images)

Two BMW Electric Cars: One From The Factory And One Converted At Home

Illustration for article titled Two BMW Electric Cars: One From The Factory And One Converted At Home

Photo: Allan

One thing that I’ve been curious about is how homebrew electric car builds compare to OEM efforts at EVs, especially as we’re still in the early days of widespread manufacturer adoption. Jalopnik reader Allan has both: a 1983 E21 he converted himself and 2014 BMW i3 that doesn’t even want to see a wrench.

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Welcome to EV Ownership Stories! Every week, we’ll be posting an interview with an owner of an electric vehicle. We’re here to show that people have been living with EVs for longer than you’d think, in stranger places than you’d imagine. If you’d like to be featured, instructions are at the bottom of the article.

As you can probably tell by this point in the series, I adore featuring stories about classic cars converted to electric vehicles. It’s so satisfying to look through my inbox and find the cars I grew up adoring given a new lease on life as modern hot rods.

And that brings us to this week’s pair of EVs owned by Allan, both bearing the roundel of the Bavarian Motor Works, but with vastly different execution. The first is his ’14 BMW i3 with a range extender, which of course comes chock full of creature comforts like adaptive cruise, one-pedal driving and smartphone connectivity, as well as the usual BMW fit and finish (albeit packaged in a much more quirky package than, say, an X3). The 650cc engine works as a gas generator that kicks on when the batteries are getting low, to eliminate range anxiety without needing to add a full ICE drivetrain like in a traditional parallel hybrid. Allan says quite simply, “the i3 does everything well, but I probably can’t fix it. I can’t even buy a manual to read about fixing it.” Basically, it makes a good daily driver, but it doesn’t satisfy his urge to wrench.

Illustration for article titled Two BMW Electric Cars: One From The Factory And One Converted At Home

Photo: Allan

Now we get to the second BMW in his EV collection, and this one can be wrenched on. Allan’s other electric BMW is a 1983 320is coupe with a DC motor, a five-speed manual transmission, and a 21 kWh battery system that provides over 60 miles of range “while driving any way [Allan] feels like.” He enjoys the E21 BMWs a lot (as he put it, to the point of mild addiction) and he’d had this specific one sitting around for a while. It was too nice to part out, but too rough to restore, and he immediately gravitated towards a budget EV build. It was a good way to do it justice and enjoy it. He’s been converting EVs on and off as part of his repair business for nearly 30 years, so he had the skills to build it. All he needed was a refresher on some of the more modern solutions available.

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Illustration for article titled Two BMW Electric Cars: One From The Factory And One Converted At Home

Photo: Allan

The 320is is, as a result, an entirely homebrew conversion, built with fresh LFP batteries for juice and an Orion BMS2 from Shift EVs for power management. The rest of the system is cobbled entirely together out of other old, broken conversions Allan would find on EVFinder.com and purchase for parts. A BMW 2002 that had been converted to a DC motor helped him get his power plant, engine mount, and transmission adapter situation set up, and a converted ’90s Toyota Pickup donated its DC/DC converter, battery charger, and many other parts to the build.

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Because he used other used builds for parts and sold off the non-EV components like the BMW 2002 shell, the conversion without the batteries was actually in the black. With the batteries and management system he bought new, the overall cost of the project came out to roughly $7,500. That’s the most cost-efficient homemade EV I’ve seen thus far, and it’s giving me really bad ideas about what I’d like my next project to be. I could maybe swing that cost.

Illustration for article titled Two BMW Electric Cars: One From The Factory And One Converted At Home

Photo: Allan

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The E21, as Allan puts it, drives great:

“its entertainment value as an EV is just limitless. I can shift and hot rod if I want or just leave it in third gear and be lazy. And it’s a beast for pulling a trailer!”

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The conversion actually allowed the car to lose 200 pounds, move the center of gravity backwards and downwards, and improve the weight balance of the car. Because it’s a DC motor powering it, the manual transmission is actually needed and the car has the fun of shifting with the linear response and quiet ride of a modern EV. Allan actually uses the E21 to test out differentials and transmissions he sells or puts into other cars. As he explains, “It is perfect for this job. No exhaust, heat shields, or fuel pump in the way, and it’s utterly silent. You can really hear any drivetrain noise!”

His verdict on the two cars is that they are a perfect pair: the i3 for a reasonable daily, capable of puttering around town in comfort, with a warranty, and no worries about range, and the E21 for pure fun and towing. He does admit he finds himself in his E21 more often than the i3 (or any of the other ICE cars he owns and works on, for that matter) and I really can’t say I’d blame him at all!

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Thank you so much for sharing, Allan! We’d love to hear from more readers about their EVs, modern or classic, factory or otherwise.


We want:

Your name

What car do you own? (If you owned a car in the past, let us know what years!)

Where do you live with it?

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How was buying it?

How long have you had it?

How has it lived up to your expectations?

A photo of your car

If you want to be interviewed, please let us know an email with an re: EV Ownership Stories to tscott at jalopnik dot com!

Solid State Batteries Could Deliver The EVs We Imagine But Carmakers Ought To Be Realistic

Illustration for article titled Solid State Batteries Could Deliver The EVs We Imagine But Carmakers Ought To Be Realistic

Image: Lexus

We’re going to need an offshoot of Moore’s Law that applies to EV batteries soon, because progress is on the verge of rapidly accelerating thanks to solid state batteries.

Given the imminent focus on the new batteries, now is a good time to explain how these differ from their predecessors. Who better to explain than one of the companies at the forefront of developing this new tech, QuantumScape?

As you can see, the difference is in the name! A solid-state battery has a different structure than a lithium-ion battery, doing away with the need for as many layers in the construction. This results in a more compact, lighter battery.

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Image: Volkswagen

Volkswagen, through its investments in QuantumScape, and Toyota have been proponents of the technology for a few years now, and development of the new tech is hitting strides. The batteries will not be used in current production EVs such as those based on Volkswagen’s MEB platform, but Toyota is teasing the new tech in proposed models like the Lexus LF-30.

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Image: Lexus

In a recent report, Road Show provides a good overview of what this new battery can do for future EVs. Among the benefits:

  • Greater energy density. This could mean an EV with two or more times the current range, or possibly an EV with the same range but with a much smaller, lighter and less expensive battery that charges faster.
  • Faster charging. Estimates of an 80 percent charge in 15 minutes get bandied about a lot with solid state, performance that would be on par or a bit faster than today’s best li-ion applications.
  • Longer life. Solid-state tech is a key part of GM’s plan to produce a million-mile life battery, changing the equation of EV affordability and reducing concerns about mountains of toxic batteries that need recycling after 100,000 to 150,000 miles.
  • Thermal stability. Solid-state designs promise less likelihood of thermal runaway, which can cause a fire. Li-ion batteries have developed a nasty reputation for this.

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All of this sounds great, but there is the concern that these advances in battery tech will cancel out. Let me explain: As battery technology improves and brings better range, faster recharge times and greater energy density, carmakers could get greedy.

We know the higher energy density offers the potential to reduce the size — crucially, the weight — of the batteries required to deliver the range customers want. Lower mass is great for cars all around, and it’s exactly what we want for future EVs, but what if carmakers instead stick to the current standard for battery pack weight and opt for greater and greater range rather than weight reduction?

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I don’t want more range! I want a smaller, lighter, more efficient EV. Or at least some compromise. Carmakers will have the chance to design better, more efficient EVs but I hope this does not create an arms race similar to the cylinder wars. There has to be a happy medium for EVs and solid-state batteries could get us there.