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Your New Electric Car Will Cost Less To Produce Than Your Old Gas Guzzler Very Soon

One of the most important milestones in the shift to electrification is coming sooner than you think. Electric cars will cost less to make than internal combustion cars by the year 2027, according to a report from The Guardian.

And the lower cost of production will come even sooner than that in certain EV segments. For example, electric midsize sedans and SUVs will be cheaper to make than internal combustion midsize sedans and SUVs by 2026, per the report. Just one year after that, smaller cars will follow and it’s mostly thanks to cheaper batteries.

The research that The Guardian cites concludes that batteries will drive a big decrease in EV production costs in the near future. As EV batteries get cheaper, the production of electric cars gets cheaper, too, because batteries account for as much as a quarter of that overall cost.

The Guardian cites a new study, which suggests that the price of batteries will decrease by more than half of where it is now, in this decade:

The new study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-profit organisation that campaigns for cleaner transport in Europe, predicts new battery prices will fall by 58% between 2020 and 2030 to $58 per kilowatt hour.

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This means that in as little as five years from today, electric cars will actually be the cheaper option for big auto and it’s very possible that, as The Guardian outlines, “tighter emissions regulations could put [EVs] in pole position to dominate all new car sales by the middle of the next decade…”

When you take the stricter emissions that the European Union is proposing, and you add that to the lower cost of batteries, you get a market where making and selling EVs is more lucrative for carmakers than ICE ever was.

The important question, then, is: Will cheaper to make translate to cheaper to buy? The report indicates that it is a possibility:

The current average pre-tax retail price of a medium-sized electric car is €33,300 [~$40,135], compared with €18,600 [~$22,615] for a petrol car, according to the research. In 2026, both are forecast to cost about €19,000 [~$23,101].

By 2030, the same electric car is forecast to cost €16,300 [~$19,818]before tax, while the petrol car would cost €19,900 [~24,196.]

Carmakers are beginning to like not operating on razor-thin margins. It’s possible that cheaper batteries will mean more profit for big auto, rather than EVs for the masses.

I can’t wait to see what carmakers are going to push in order to meet these upmarket margins as EV production costs go down. Really, I’m just stoked to see how they’ll swerve around the $25,000 electric car.

EV Chargers Are Still Inaccessible To Many People With Disabilities

When infrastructure planners map out the future design of cities around the world, they generally do so with able-bodied folks in mind. Charging networks for electric vehicles have fallen into the same trap, with one-third of people with disabilities in the United Kingdom still struggling to find an accessible charger for their vehicle.

Those stats are the result of a four-year study conducted by Zap-Map, the UK’s answer to charge station mapping services. The company polled 2,200 EV drivers to gauge how the electric world has been evolving. This year, though, Zap-Map paired with a company called Motability, a charity in the UK dedicated to serving communities of those with disabilities. The goal is to examine how the current charging infrastructure is working for the non-able-bodied community.

The survey revealed a lot of statistics that show we still have a lot of work to do to make the electric world more accessible.

One-third of people with disabilities have difficulty locating a charger that meets their needs
One in seven of those interviewed noted that the biggest problem they face is the weight of the charging cables
Other issues include: the force required to attach the connector, a lack of dropped curbs to provide a ramp near charging points, unsuitable parking

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Catherine Marris, Innovation Lead at Motability, responded to the results by saying, “We know that one in five people in the UK are disabled and Motability’s recent research estimated that there will be 2.7 million disabled drivers or passengers by 2035, with 1.35 million expected to be partially or wholly reliant on public charging infrastructure. As we approach what will be a transformative energy transition in the UK, there is a robust social and commercial case for ensuring that EV charging infrastructure is accessible for disabled people. If we want to work towards a society and economy that is inclusive for all, then accessibility must be a priority.”

Essentially, this survey will likely be a jumping-off point for EV infrastructure designers in the future. It shows a lack of foresight on the part of many charging planners, something that will require a revamp in the near future.

Electric School Buses Are A Brilliant Application For Current EV Tech

As we look forward to distribution of the coronavirus vaccines and the eventual re-opening of schools, we also anticipate students again boarding a familiar fixture of American roadways: the yellow school bus.

Outwardly, school buses haven’t changed a whole lot over the decades. Times are changing, though, as hundreds of electric school buses are entering service. I think a school bus is one of the best use-cases for current EV technology.

Blue Bird, a leading school bus manufacturer in the U.S., has been churning out all-electric school buses since 2018. It delivered its 100th electric bus in April and received its 300th order in November, Autoweek reported. Blue Bird notes that its electric bus sales are up 250 percent in 2020, so the market for electric buses appears to be growing rapidly.

I was amazed at that growth and wondered what’s hidden under the sheetmetal. Blue Bird offers its Micro Bird, Vision and All American buses in electric form. Bolted to the frame under the floor are two banks of seven Li-ION NMC/G batteries adding up to a capacity of 155 kWh. These batteries are rated for 3,000 charge cycles (0 to 100 percent charges), or an expected eight to ten years of service.

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Blue Bird’s offerings have a range up to 120 miles on a charge. But if that isn’t enough, Navistar International’s IC Bus subsidiary has its CE Series Electric. IC advertises more than 200 miles on a charge with a massive 315-kWh battery. For comparison’s sake, that’s larger than the beefy 264-kWh pack in Volvo’s VNR Electric trucks.

Both manufacturers are offering DC fast-charging options. These buses are capable of vehicle-to-grid integration. In short, this means the buses could be used for energy storage, returning power to the grid at times of peak demand.

Blue Bird and IC Bus aren’t the only bus makers in the EV market. Thomas Built Buses is also delivering Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley electric school buses to school districts on the Eastern Seaboard. Collins Bus Corporation and others also have electric school bus offerings.

Potentially fueling this rush to purchase electric buses are large grants from various government agencies. Illinois is using some of its Volkswagen Dieselgate settlement money for grants toward electrifying school bus fleets.

It blows my mind that so many choices are out there for electric buses, but it makes sense. Buses tend to travel an average of 31.73 miles during a set route on a driving shift. Even with more than one driving shift, EV tech is perfect for school buses.

It’s good for students, too, as exhaust from a diesel-powered bus can expose them to cancer risks as much as 23 to 46 greater than what’s considered significant under federal law; each year, one school bus in Texas emits the equivalent of 114 cars, according to the EPA. Worse, there is no known safe level of diesel or gasoline exhaust exposure for the developing immune system of a child.

If there is a major limiting factor in adopting these buses, it’s price. An electric school bus can easily be double the initial price of a diesel unit, being as high as $400,000. However, given the extremely low running costs of an electric and the potential availability of grants, bus manufacturers expect electric buses to be cheaper for school districts in the long run. The New York School Bus Contractors Association reports that there are more than 480,000 school buses on American roads, so these manufacturers have a long way to go.

As you all know by now, I seriously love school buses. While I’m partial to diesel propulsion I love how electric technology is transforming a staple of America. Given the limitations of current EV tech, I can’t think of a better application.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Is Probably Going To Permanently Change The Way We Relate To Cars

When 2020 kicked off, we knew the automotive industry was changing, but no one could have predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic would have as much of an impact as it’s had. As the virus has lingered in America, it’s become clear that we want something different from the way we relate to our cars.

Buying Online

Two out of three car buyers are open to a 100 percent online buying experience, a study from AutoTrader reports. Luxury automakers like Genesis are already offering options like this, where you can order a car online and have it delivered to you without ever having to step into a dealership.

It’s an attractive option for people who don’t want to go through an already arduous buying experience. From the study:

Consumers have always wanted quicker interactions during their automotive experience, and now, with more online tools available to them such as scheduled test drives, pick-up and delivery, their willingness to completing the entire vehicle purchase online is accelerating exponentially.

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While there’s certainly still value in being able to see a car in person before making a purchase, there’s a lot more accountability now than in the past. If you have a bad buying experience, you can always take to the Internet to complain and, in some way, hold that brand accountable.

People just don’t feel they can adequately socially distance in a dealership scenario, and the longer the pandemic has lasted, the more open people have become online shopping.

Driving, Not Public Transit

It makes sense that folks are growing less and less interested in public transit these days. There’s been a big push in recent years to expand things like subways, trains, and bus services in order to reduce the number of cars on the road, but we’ve seen a regression as a result of COVID-19.

At this exact moment, plenty of people have been putting off new car purchases, but that has less to do with the virus itself than its economic impact, AutoTrader notes. Millions of people are still unemployed, and the economy still isn’t exactly booming; investing in a car is probably not on most peoples’ radar right now.

But that doesn’t mean they’re not driving.

“COVID-19 has caused vehicle ownership to become more vital to consumers’ everyday lives, often replacing other transportation methods such as ride-sharing or public transit,” notes a CarGurus study of Canadian drivers.

We perceive public transportation as more dangerous than personal travel, and that’s not wrong: confined spaces, high-touch surfaces, and the inability to quickly determine which person is sick makes it a riskier option than taking the family car. And, the longer this pandemic plays out, the more firmly these perceptions of uncleanliness will settle into our brains.

It’s the same thing with air travel. While some folks have been trying to push a study saying contracting COVID-19 on airplanes is rare, the whole concept of sitting in close confines with people breathing the same recycled air is unappealing. The onset of the pandemic saw a 96 percent decrease in air travel, and while more people are flying, they aren’t doing so with the same abandon they had been pre-pandemic. Many of those people are turning to their cars to get them where they need to go.

Electric And Autonomous Options

One of the biggest surprises for me is the fact that the pandemic has people more interested in electric and autonomous options than they had been before. Nearly one-third of new vehicle shoppers are interested in EVs, and that largely comes down to the perception that it would enable drivers to avoid high-touch areas in a gas station. Charging stations will likely present a problem in and of itself, but EV owners can also opt for a home charger.

In part, this also comes down to a greater familiarity with EVs. They’re not really new anymore. We see them on the road and have likely noted the nearest charger to us.

This is also paired to our beliefs about autonomous vehicles, which we think we know but about which many folks are still a little hazy. If we’re going to be opting for driving more often in our personal cars, we’re going to be more interested in handing over the reins the way we’ve done in airplanes and public transit.

Vanderhall Is Finally Making A Four-Wheeled Vehicle And It’s An Electric Off Roader

If you’ve been following American automotive manufacturing for the last decade, you might have heard of the tiny Utah-based three-wheeled roadster builder Vanderhall. The company has been building front-wheel drive three-wheeled roadsters powered by GM drivetrains since 2012, with its first electric model, the Edison, coming in 2018. This week the company announced it would be doubling the size of its factory to produce the new electric off-road buggy called Navarro by 2022.

This little machine actually looks quite intriguing. I’m not sure if it will be road legal, based on the wheels that stick out well past the fenders, so perhaps this will be taking on the side-by-side market. Vanderhall is being a bit cagey on the details here, as the finished product is still two years away, but we know that it will be electric and that’s about it.

We can surmise that this buggy will have four wheel drive, perhaps with a quartet of the motors found in the Edison, which provide 52 kW each. With two of these motors, the 1400 pound Edison cranks out a 4.4 second 0-60 time. It also means the individual motors can torque vector like nobody’s business. Individual wheel control in an off-road environment sounds like a dream come true.

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One thing I’m really excited about, which you can tell from the top shot, is that the Navarro has holes in its doors! If the Navarro can undercut Ford’s Bronco (it should), it might officially be the cheapest vehicle with holes in its doors!

I will be curious to see how electric off-roading takes off in the near future. Obviously range anxiety becomes a bit more of an issue when you’re 70 miles from nowhere, but perhaps companies could start installing chargers at trailheads for both road going and off-roading vehicle needs ahead of the surge in demand.

I’d really like to give this a try, because I cannot imagine how awesome it would be to get way off the beaten trail into the middle of the wilderness and hear the birds chirping and the wind rustling through the trees. Silent and low-impact rock crawling sounds like my kind of fun time.